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MetisEtrade’s Happy Trading Hours Has a New Champion for November | BusinessWorld Online

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Trading Recommendation December 12

Fundamental Analysis
S&P Downgrades US Growth Forecast ; RBNZ Increases New Zealand Growth Forecast!

Standard & Poor's credit ratings agency has lowered its U.S. growth forecast warning of "significant downside risks" from federal spending cuts.

To read the full trading recommendation, please click this link: http://metisetrade.com/index.php/research

Technical Analysis
USDCHF Breached the Long Term Weekly Chart! Sell in Sight

Today we are going to take a look at USDCHF known as the Swissy. The pair is widely known to be a safety trade and is closely linked to the prices of EURUSD (although inversely related, meaning as EURUSD goes up, USDCHF goes down). As we can see from the weekly chart prices have broke down the lows of the consolidation phase that started way back in September 2011.

To read the full trading recommendation, please click this link: http://metisetrade.com/index.php/research

Dennis Gartman's 19 Rules Of Trading

2013 was great year for stocks and a crazy year for bonds.

But the amount of money you made depends on how you traded.

Dennis Gartman, editor and publisher of the Gartman Letter, has 19 rules of trading from 2013. But these hold true in general.

Here they are verbatim:

1. NEVER, EVER, EVER ADD TO A LOSING POSITION: EVER!: Adding to a losing position eventually leads to ruin, remembering Enron, Long Term Capital Management, Nick Leeson and myriad others.
2. TRADE LIKE A MERCENARY SOLDIER: As traders/investors we are to fight on the winning side of the trade, not on the side of the trade we may believe to be economically correct. We are pragmatists first, foremost and always.
3. MENTAL CAPITAL TRUMPS REAL CAPITAL: Capital comes in two forms... mental and real... and defending losing positions diminishes one’s finite and measurable real capital and one’s infinite and immeasurable mental capital accordingly and alway.
4. WE ARE NOT IN THE BUSINESS OF BUYING LOW AND SELLING HIGH: We are in the business of buying high and selling higher, or of selling low and buying lower. Strength begets strength; weakness more weakness.
5. IN BULL MARKETS ONE MUST TRY ALWAYS TO BE LONG OR NEUTRAL: The corollary, obviously, is that in bear markets one must try always to be short or neutral. There are exceptions, but they are very, very rare.
6. "MARKETS CAN REMAIN ILLOGICAL FAR LONGER THAN YOU OR I CAN REMAIN SOLVENT:" So said Lord Keynes many years ago and he was... and is... right, for illogic does often reign, despite what the academics would have us believe.
7. BUY THAT WHICH SHOWS THE GREATEST STRENGTH; SELL THAT WHICH SHOWS THE GREATEST WEAKNESS: Metaphorically, the wettest paper sacks break most easily and the strongest winds carry ships the farthest,fastest.
8. THINK LIKE A FUNDAMENTALIST; TRADE LIKE A TECHNICIAN: Be bullish... or bearish... only when the technicals and the fundamentals, as you understand them, run in tandem.
9. TRADING RUNS IN CYCLES; SOME GOOD, MOST BAD: In the “Good Times” even one’s errors are profitable; in the inevitable “Bad Times” even the most well researched trade shall goes awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it and move on.
10. KEEP YOUR SYSTEMS SIMPLE: Complication breeds confusion; simplicity breeds elegance and profitability.
11. UNDERSTANDING MASS PSYCHOLOGY IS ALMOST ALWAYS MORE IMPORTANT THAN UNDERSTANDING ECONOMICS: Or more simply put, "When they’re cryin’ you should be buyin’ and when they’re yellin’ you should be sellin’!"
12. REMEMBER, THERE IS NEVER JUST ONE COCKROACH: The lesson of bad news is that more shall follow... usually hard upon and always with worsening impact.
13. BE PATIENT WITH WINNING TRADES; BE ENORMOUSLY IMPATIENT WITH LOSERS: Need we really say more?
14. DO MORE OF THAT WHICH IS WORKING AND LESS OF THAT WHICH IS NOT: This works well in life as well as trading. If there is a “secret” to trading... and to life... this is it.
15. CLEAN UP AFTER YOURSELF: Need we really say more? Errors only get worse.
16. SOMEONE’S ALWAYS GOT A BIGGER JUNK YARD DOG: No matter how much “work” we do on a trade, someone knows more and is more prepared than are we... and has more capital!
17. PAY ATTENTION: The market sends signals more often than not missed and/or disregarded... so pay attention!
18. WHEN THE FACTS CHANGE, CHANGE! Lord Keynes... again... once said that “ When the facts change, I change; what do you do, Sir?” When the technicals or the fundamentals of a position change, change your position, or at least reduced your exposure and perhaps exit entirely.
19. ALL RULES ARE MEANT TO BE BROKEN: But they are to be broken only rarely and true genius comes with knowing when, where and why!

(C) MAMTA BADKAR

Freeday Friday Winner December 6, 2013

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December 6, 2013

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Trading Recommendation Dec. 11

Technical Analysis

USDJPY Possibly Forming a Double Top Which Signals Lower Prices Ahead

Looking at the USDJPY chart, we can see that prices have failed to breach the recent previous high of 103.40 and prices have fallen. This is a possible double top move in progress and could mean bearish tendencies for prices in the near term. Entry price would be at 103.05. Stop loss price would be at 103.55 when the former high is breached. Take profits when prices hover down at 101.95. 

To read the full trading recommendation, please click this link: http://metisetrade.com/index.php/research

Fundamental Analysis

US Budget Deal Compromise Ends Risk of Another Government Shutdown in 2014

Congressional negotiators from both Republicans and Democrats unveiled a long-awaited budget framework to fund the government past mid-January and stabilize the government's finances into the near future. The announcement follows a day full of fine-tuning the details of the agreement, which covers the next two fiscal years and set a top-line budget number for each year. The framework would set spending levels above the $967 billion cap established by the sequester; the budget for 2014 would be set at $1.012 trillion, and the budget for 2015 would be $1.014 trillion.

To read the full trading recommendation, please click this link: http://metisetrade.com/index.php/research

Analyzing Chart Patterns: Triangles

As you may have noticed, chart pattern names don't leave much to the imagination. This is no different for the triangle patterns, which clearly form the shape of a triangle. The basic construct of this chart pattern is the convergence of two trendlines - flat, ascending or descending - with the price of the security moving between the two trendlines.There are three types of triangles, which vary in construct and significance: thesymmetrical triangle, the descending triangle and the ascending triangle.

Symmetrical triangle
The symmetrical triangle is mainly considered to be a continuation pattern that signals a period of consolidation in a trend followed by a resumption of the prior trend. It is formed by the convergence of a descending resistance line and an ascending support line. The two trendlines in the formation of this triangle should have a similar slope converging at a point known as the apex. The price of the security will bounce between these trendlines, towards the apex, and typically breakout in the direction of the prior trend.If preceded by a downward trend, the focus should be on a break below the ascending support line. If preceded by an upward trend, look for a break above the descending resistance line. However, this pattern doesn't always lead to a continuation of the previous trend. A break in the opposite direction of the prior trend should signal the formation of a new trend. 

Figure 1: Symmetrical triangle

Above is an example of a symmetrical triangle that is preceded by an upward trend. The first part of this pattern is the creation of a high in the upward trend, which is followed by a sell-off to a low. The price then moves to another high that is lower than the first high and again sells off to a low, which is higher than the previous low. At this point the trendlines can be drawn, which creates the apex. The price will continue to move between these lines until breakout. 
The pattern is complete when the price breaks out of the triangle - look for an increase in volume in the direction of the breakout. This pattern is also susceptible to a return to the previous support or resistance line that it just broke through, so make sure to watch for this level to hold if it does indeed break out.

Ascending Triangle
The ascending triangle is a bullish pattern, which gives an indication that the price of the security is headed higher upon completion. The pattern is formed by two trendlines: a flat trendline being a point of resistance and an ascending trendline acting as a price support.The price of the security moves between these trendlines until it eventually breaks out to the upside. This pattern will typically be preceded by an upward trend, which makes it a continuation pattern; however, it can be found during a downtrend. 

Figure 2: Ascending triangle

As seen above, the price moves to a high that faces resistance leading to a sell-off to a low. This follows another move higher, which tests the previous level of resistance. Upon failing to move past this level of resistance, the security again sells off - but to a higher low. This continues until the price moves above the level of resistance or the pattern fails.The most telling part of this pattern is the ascending support line, which gives an indication that sellers are starting to leave the security. After the sellers are knocked out of the market, the buyers can take the price past the resistance level and resume the upward trend.The pattern is complete upon breakout above the resistance level, but it can fall below the support line (thus breaking the pattern), so be careful when entering prior to breakout.

Descending triangle
The descending triangle is the opposite of the ascending triangle in that it gives a bearish signal to chartists, suggesting that the price will trend downward upon completion of the pattern. The descending triangle is constructed with a flat support line and a downward-sloping resistance line.Similar to the ascending triangle, this pattern is generally considered to be a continuation pattern, as it is preceded by a downward trendline. But again, it can be found in an uptrend.

Figure 3: Descending triangle

The first part of this pattern is the fall to a low that then finds a level of support, which sends the price to a high. The next move is a second test of the previous support level, which again sends the stock higher - but this time to a lower level than the previous move higher. This is repeated until the price is unable to hold the support level and falls below, resuming the downtrend.This pattern indicates that buyers are trying to take the security higher, but continue to face resistance. After several attempts to push the stock higher, the buyers fade and the sellers overpower them, which sends the price lower.

(C) Investopedia