The Bouncing Zone Strategy — Part 2

Introduction

Your are about to read the part 2 of a 3 part article called "the bouncing zone strategy".

Have you tried to find zones on your charts? If so, you certainly noticed that not all of them work as planned. Well, I have a good news for you: it’s possible to filter out some of the zones that are most likely to fail.

Before talking about what makes a zone good or bad, we should first understand what are the characteristics of a zone. That’s what we’re going to talk about here. Each section below deals about one of the characteristics of a zone.

Name of the zone

You already know the first characteristic of a zone, it’s simply the name of the zone. Is either a supply zone, or a demand zone.

Okay, now let’s talk about things you don’t know yet :-)

Type of zone

We can divide the zones into 4 different types:

• Drop Base Rally (DBR)
• Rally Base Drop (RBD)
• Drop Base Drop (DBD)
• Rally Base Rally (RBR)

This sounds weird? Here's an image that should make things clear.

This is simply a way to describe the "direction" of the zone.

Strength of the move

When price leaves a zone, it’s important to know how to describe the strength of the move. For this we have 2 useful things to look at:

• How many consecutive candles of the same color there are
• How big the candles are

If you have lots of big candles of the same color, it’s a strong level. If you have only a couple of small candles of the same color, it’s a slow level. You can see below a slow move (left) and a strong one (right).

Time in the zone

This one is simple: once you draw the zone, count how many candles there are in the zone. If you see more than 5 candles, then it's a long zone. Is there are less than 5, then it's a short zone.

In the example below you can count 3 candles, so it's a fast zone.

Height of the zone

Look at the height of your zone, then look at the height of your price movement. If the zone is bigger than 1/4 of the price movement, then the zone is big. Otherwise, the zone is small.

In the example below, the left zone is big, the right zone is small.

Freshness of the zone

You need to follow 2 steps in order to know if a zone is fresh or not:

• Look on the left of the zone, and see if your price movement is due to a previous zone being hit.
• Look on the right of the zone, and see if the the price already hit the zone at least once.

It’s easier to explain with an example:

Is the zone 2 fresh?

• On the left, we do not see a prvious zone at 1
• On the right, price touched the zone at 3
• -> The zone was fresh before hitting 3, but now it is not fresh anymore

Is the zone 4 fresh?

• On the left, we do not see a previous zone
• On the right, price did not touch the zone yet
• -> The zone is fresh

Quick summary

As we just saw, there are 6 characteristics to think about when describing a zone:

• Name of the zone: supply, demand
• Type of zone: DBR, RBD, DBD, RBR
• Strength of the move: strong, medium, slow
• Time in the zone: short, long
• Height of the zone: small, big
• Freshness of the zone: yes, no

All of this is really important, you should keep it in mind while looking for zones

Some examples

Now it’s time to see some examples together. Below are 2 zones, try to describe them using what we learnt in the article.

Characteristics of the left zone:

• Name of the zone: supply
• Type of zone: DBD
• Strength of the move: strong
• Time in the zone: short
• Height of the zone: small
• Freshness of the zone: not fresh anymore

Characteristics of the right zone:

• Name of the zone: demand
• Type of zone: DBR
• Strength of the move: strong
• Time in the zone: short
• Height of the zone: small
• Freshness of the zone: not fresh (you can see another level on the left of the zone)

Now you should practice describing zones on your own charts.

Credit: 21pips

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Trading Recommendation Dec. 13

Technical Analysis
USDJPY Breached the Year's High May Aim for 104.35. Next: 107 to 114?

Today we are going to take a look at USDJPY for a break of this year high at 103.73 was seen early this morning.An ascending triangle can be seen from the trendline drawn from the highs of 2009 and 2013 lies at 104.25(long-term resistance) and a break higher may put pressure to move further up to the low of November 1,2007 low of 107.25 initially.While the measured move of the triangle may be seen as long term goal at 114.67.

To read the full trading recommendation, please click this link: http://metisetrade.com/index.php/research

Fundamental Analysis
Japan's 2nd Month Growth Forecasts Cut on Weak Capital Expenditure

Economists cut Japan’s economic growth forecast for the second straight month as a slowdown in capital expenditure and lackluster export demand weighs on the outlook for the current fiscal year. The economists stuck with their view that Japan’s growth will slow further next fiscal year due to a planned increase in the sales tax in April. The biggest downside risks to this scenario are a longer-than-expected downturn in consumer spending after an increase in the sales tax, the poll showed, as well as if overseas economies unexpectedly weaken.

To read the full trading recommendation, please click this link: http://metisetrade.com/index.php/research

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Trading Recommendation December 12

Fundamental Analysis
S&P Downgrades US Growth Forecast ; RBNZ Increases New Zealand Growth Forecast!

Standard & Poor's credit ratings agency has lowered its U.S. growth forecast warning of "significant downside risks" from federal spending cuts.

To read the full trading recommendation, please click this link: http://metisetrade.com/index.php/research

Technical Analysis
USDCHF Breached the Long Term Weekly Chart! Sell in Sight

Today we are going to take a look at USDCHF known as the Swissy. The pair is widely known to be a safety trade and is closely linked to the prices of EURUSD (although inversely related, meaning as EURUSD goes up, USDCHF goes down). As we can see from the weekly chart prices have broke down the lows of the consolidation phase that started way back in September 2011.

To read the full trading recommendation, please click this link: http://metisetrade.com/index.php/research

Dennis Gartman's 19 Rules Of Trading

2013 was great year for stocks and a crazy year for bonds.

But the amount of money you made depends on how you traded.

Dennis Gartman, editor and publisher of the Gartman Letter, has 19 rules of trading from 2013. But these hold true in general.

Here they are verbatim:

1. NEVER, EVER, EVER ADD TO A LOSING POSITION: EVER!: Adding to a losing position eventually leads to ruin, remembering Enron, Long Term Capital Management, Nick Leeson and myriad others.
2. TRADE LIKE A MERCENARY SOLDIER: As traders/investors we are to fight on the winning side of the trade, not on the side of the trade we may believe to be economically correct. We are pragmatists first, foremost and always.
3. MENTAL CAPITAL TRUMPS REAL CAPITAL: Capital comes in two forms... mental and real... and defending losing positions diminishes one’s finite and measurable real capital and one’s infinite and immeasurable mental capital accordingly and alway.
4. WE ARE NOT IN THE BUSINESS OF BUYING LOW AND SELLING HIGH: We are in the business of buying high and selling higher, or of selling low and buying lower. Strength begets strength; weakness more weakness.
5. IN BULL MARKETS ONE MUST TRY ALWAYS TO BE LONG OR NEUTRAL: The corollary, obviously, is that in bear markets one must try always to be short or neutral. There are exceptions, but they are very, very rare.
6. "MARKETS CAN REMAIN ILLOGICAL FAR LONGER THAN YOU OR I CAN REMAIN SOLVENT:" So said Lord Keynes many years ago and he was... and is... right, for illogic does often reign, despite what the academics would have us believe.
7. BUY THAT WHICH SHOWS THE GREATEST STRENGTH; SELL THAT WHICH SHOWS THE GREATEST WEAKNESS: Metaphorically, the wettest paper sacks break most easily and the strongest winds carry ships the farthest,fastest.
8. THINK LIKE A FUNDAMENTALIST; TRADE LIKE A TECHNICIAN: Be bullish... or bearish... only when the technicals and the fundamentals, as you understand them, run in tandem.
9. TRADING RUNS IN CYCLES; SOME GOOD, MOST BAD: In the “Good Times” even one’s errors are profitable; in the inevitable “Bad Times” even the most well researched trade shall goes awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it and move on.
10. KEEP YOUR SYSTEMS SIMPLE: Complication breeds confusion; simplicity breeds elegance and profitability.
11. UNDERSTANDING MASS PSYCHOLOGY IS ALMOST ALWAYS MORE IMPORTANT THAN UNDERSTANDING ECONOMICS: Or more simply put, "When they’re cryin’ you should be buyin’ and when they’re yellin’ you should be sellin’!"
12. REMEMBER, THERE IS NEVER JUST ONE COCKROACH: The lesson of bad news is that more shall follow... usually hard upon and always with worsening impact.
13. BE PATIENT WITH WINNING TRADES; BE ENORMOUSLY IMPATIENT WITH LOSERS: Need we really say more?
14. DO MORE OF THAT WHICH IS WORKING AND LESS OF THAT WHICH IS NOT: This works well in life as well as trading. If there is a “secret” to trading... and to life... this is it.
15. CLEAN UP AFTER YOURSELF: Need we really say more? Errors only get worse.
16. SOMEONE’S ALWAYS GOT A BIGGER JUNK YARD DOG: No matter how much “work” we do on a trade, someone knows more and is more prepared than are we... and has more capital!
17. PAY ATTENTION: The market sends signals more often than not missed and/or disregarded... so pay attention!
18. WHEN THE FACTS CHANGE, CHANGE! Lord Keynes... again... once said that “ When the facts change, I change; what do you do, Sir?” When the technicals or the fundamentals of a position change, change your position, or at least reduced your exposure and perhaps exit entirely.
19. ALL RULES ARE MEANT TO BE BROKEN: But they are to be broken only rarely and true genius comes with knowing when, where and why!

(C) MAMTA BADKAR

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December 6, 2013

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Trading Recommendation Dec. 11

Technical Analysis

USDJPY Possibly Forming a Double Top Which Signals Lower Prices Ahead

Looking at the USDJPY chart, we can see that prices have failed to breach the recent previous high of 103.40 and prices have fallen. This is a possible double top move in progress and could mean bearish tendencies for prices in the near term. Entry price would be at 103.05. Stop loss price would be at 103.55 when the former high is breached. Take profits when prices hover down at 101.95. 

To read the full trading recommendation, please click this link: http://metisetrade.com/index.php/research

Fundamental Analysis

US Budget Deal Compromise Ends Risk of Another Government Shutdown in 2014

Congressional negotiators from both Republicans and Democrats unveiled a long-awaited budget framework to fund the government past mid-January and stabilize the government's finances into the near future. The announcement follows a day full of fine-tuning the details of the agreement, which covers the next two fiscal years and set a top-line budget number for each year. The framework would set spending levels above the $967 billion cap established by the sequester; the budget for 2014 would be set at $1.012 trillion, and the budget for 2015 would be $1.014 trillion.

To read the full trading recommendation, please click this link: http://metisetrade.com/index.php/research

The 4 Stages of Loss in Forex

One of the first things that you should learn in forex trading is accepting defeat. Although it is a normal part of the overall trading process, losing is something that many traders–both newbies and pros–have difficult with.

Think about it. Losing in a game where nothing is at stake is tough enough, what more when there is actual money that you have worked for very hard is involved?

The main reason behind the difficulty in coping with losses lies with the lack of understanding rather than actual psychological problems. People who are experiencing loses misunderstand the negative emotions that are attached with them, which can cause anguish and despair. This eventually makes them quit trading forex altogether. People who cannot deal with the psychology of losing end up exiting the forex trading business quickly.

In this article, I’d like to address that lack of knowledge with losses. In the next several paragraphs, I’m going to talk about the 4 stages of loss in forex, namely, denial, rationalizing, depression, and acceptance.

Do the terms sound familiar? They should, because they’re similar to the 4 stages of grief. Do note, however, that they are applied differently in forex. My desire is that by getting to know the 4 stages, you are better suited to handle the losses that come with trading.

Stage 1: Denial

The first stage of loss enables you to deal with the losing trade. In this phase, you deny to yourself and to others that your trading idea was wrong, and that the loss wasn’t your fault. Reasons like “I was stop hunted” and “I didn’t really care for that trade” are normally used. There’s nothing wrong feeling this way, especially if you’re new. It’s a way to ease the blow to your ego, survive the loss, and move on.

Stage 2: Rationalization

After the denial stage, you move on to rationalizing your trade setup. This is the point in time where you point out everything that’s right about your trade idea and do not even think about what you did wrong. You cite the appropriateness of your trading plan, profit target, stop loss, and entry point but totally disregard that you actually did lose the trade and made a mistake somewhere.

Stage 3: Depression

At this point, you have already looked at all the possible external reasons for your loss. You then turn inward and consider the idea that the loss was completely caused by your own doing.

Although it's reasonable to take responsibility for your loss, blaming yourself too much can be damaging to your forex career if you consistently doubt yourself. You might ask yourself questions like "Is forex trading really for me?" and "Why go on at all?" You could even wind up withdrawing yourself from the business altogether if you can't find enough reasons to keep pushing forward.

Those who have experienced this kind of self-doubt can attest that the longer the losing streak is, the more the intense the feeling of depression. In some cases, you could even see yourself thinking of pursuing other business ventures out there and giving up on forex trading.

Stage 4: Acceptance

In this stage, you begin to realize that it's unhealthy to blame yourself for everything that went wrong. Even though you've accepted that the loss was partly your fault, you are also mindful of the fact that the forex market is a wild untamed beast and that there are plenty of market factors beyond your control.

Let me clarify though that acceptance isn't simply about feeling okay about the loss. In truth, acceptance is more like aligning yourself with reality and realizing that the loss cannot be undone.

When you reach this stage, you accept that you have made some mistakes on your part but that there are also things you are unable to control. Some even say that acceptance is a mix of rationalization and depression, as you combine the two before you are able to move on.

At the end of the day, it's important to remind yourself that you can never truly reverse what has been lost but that you can make up for it. One obvious way to do this is to have a winning trade and recover financially, but you can work on rebounding mentally as well.

You can come up with improvements for your trading strategy, exercise better risk management, or just figure out how to handle your losses better. Instead of simply denying the loss, you have to move on, adapt, and grow.

Happy Trading Hours New Defending Champion !

"If you want something bad enough, you must be willing to take a risk. BUT If you really REALLY want something bad enough, you must be willing to RISK EVERYTHING.. It is true that people will never succeed in life unless they are willing to die for it. Always remember success is very intentional and deliberate and it NEVER happens by CHANCE."  - Gabriel Vergara 

Congratulations to our new Defending Champion!

Everyone put up a good fight and traded to their last trading second. 

On our next monthly finals, Gab's team will defend their trophy against December finalists. So stay tuned here with our #HappyTradingHours!

The Bouncing Zone Strategy — Part 1

Introduction

Your are about to read the part 1 of a 3 part article called "the bouncing zone strategy".

You should know that I haven't invented this strategy. I've learned it on the internet and with friends, and then tweaked it to feet my needs. Some people call this strategy "supply and demand levels", but I think "bouncing zones" better describe what it's about.

The setup

This is a strategy based on Price Action, so the setup is quite simple: just the price in candle sticks. No indicator at all. I trade mostly on the main pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, etc.), and on a 1h timeframe (TF). But this technique should work on any pair and any TF.

The basic idea

Sometimes we see price moving very rapidly in one direction. What does it mean? Let's use an example to make things simple:

• Some people are selling a huge amount of $currency, and these "some people" are usually big banks
• That makes the price drop quickly from 1.3 to 1.2
• It means that a lot of people who wanted to sell $currency at around 1.3 couldn't do so, since price moved so fast
• So next time the price goes back around 1.3, a lot of sell orders are going to be triggered, and price is going to move down again
• Of course it works the opposite if price increased from 1.2 to 1.3

Once you realise that, you just have to use this information at your advantage. Here's a EUR/USD chart that shows this.

Legend:

• 1) Price dropped quickly from here, we call this a zone
• 2) Then when the price reaches back the same zone, the price bounce

Now you should understand why we call this strategy "bouncing zones". The zones from where price move quickly in one direction are called:

• Demand zone, when people want to buy and price will increase
• Supply zone, when people want to sell and price will go down (like in the example chart above)

So you just have to identify these supply and demand zones, place orders when the price goes back into these zones, and wait for the price to bounce. Obviously not all zones are going to work as planned. But from my experience, enough are going to work in our favor to make this system work, and make money.

How to identify bouncing zones

Identifying zones is quite easy. All it takes is two steps:

• 1) On a chart, identify all strong price movement
• 2) Find the base of the price movement, where the price moves slowly in sideways. This is what we call a zone.

In the example below we see 3 strong price movement. There is a supply zone that already worked, and a new demand zone.

You can see that it's quite easy to do!

How to precisely draw zones

This part is hard to explain precisely, cause there may be some rules to follow, but your also need some kind of instinct, that you can only learn by doing. Drawing zones is an "art". Anyway, the basic idea is this:

• Look at the base of a strong price movement to find some candles moving sideways
• Make the zone cover all of these candles (body and shadows)
• Then refine your zone:
  • If it's a supply zone, you do not care about the lower shadows of the candles
  • If it's a demand zone, you do not care about the upper shadows of the candles

Here are a few examples of zone drawing:

Legend:

• In blue + orange: the whole zone that covers all the candles
• In orange: the shadows we're not interested in, as explained above
• In blue: the refined zone to use for the trade

Entry, stop loss and take profit

Once you identify a zone that you want to trade, you have to set up the trade. Here's how I do it with a little example.

Legend:

• Blue rectangle: the supply zone
• Blue line: the entry of the trade, at the beginning of the zone
• Red line: the stop loss (SL), usually 2-3 pipes above the end of the zone
• Green line: the take profit (TP), that is simply placed in a way to have a 1:2 or 1:3 risk:reward ratio (in this example it's a 1:3)

So once you know how to draw zones, setting up trades is really simple with these rules.

Examples of bouncing zones

Below are 4 examples of bouncing zones from CHF/JPY charts. Two are demand zones (top), and two are supply zones (bottom).

You should try to find zones on your own charts, and see the price bouncing into them

Credit: 21pips

How to Trade Forex with Ichimoku: The Core System

We have come a long way learning about ichimoku. In this article about the indicator, I will teach you how to trade forex using ichimoku to anticipate, ride, and profit with the trend.

Ichimoku is a trend following system. Because of that, it only make sense to use it and learn it for trend following. I’m not saying that its all the ichimoku indicator could do. It is just the first step to getting to know this indicator. You can use ichimoku on any kind of strategy you want on any timeframe and on any market. I have been using ichimoku as a contrarian trader and not as a trend trader. But all traders new to this indicator should first learn how to trade with ichimoku with trend following. That is my beginning. That should be yours too.

The First Step – Anticipation

The first step to using ichimoku lies in the fact that you should be able to anticipate if a new trend is going to rise. We want the big trends. And we should be able to get on it before it even begins. We want these trends to last for days, months if possible. So how do we anticipate it?

Consider this graph:

If the 3 lines agree that the trend is going bearish, there is a high chance that a reversal is near. When the kijun sen and tenkan sen lines cross, it means a reversal. If after the cross, the tenkan sen is below the kijun sen, it is bearish. Otherwise, it is bullish. Both kijun and tenkan also points down. Which means its strongly bearish. Now, look at our chikou line. Is it above or below the price action? If its below, then it is bearish. Is it below the cloud or above the cloud? If below the cloud, then it is STRONGLY bearish.

In summary:

• Tenkan sen below kijun – bearish
• Chikou below price action – bearish
• Tenkan sen pointing down – bearish
• Kijun sen pointing down – bearish
• Chikou below kumo cloud – strongly bearish
• Kumo cloud – price action inside – consolidate (chance of breakout if the price goes down and exit the cloud. Chance of trend continuing up if the price exits the cloud upward).

When all the lines agree. There’s a high probability that the trend will go on that direction.

And as anticipated, the lines did prove to be accurate:

Following the indicator, you could have made profit around 300 – 500 pip for one position alone or more if you keep on adding position as the trend go down. The trend went for months going bearish. You could have also anticipated the trend reversing using the same technique you used entering the trade.

This is the first step in using the ichimoku indicator for trend following. On our next lesson, I’ll teach you how you can use the indicator to add position as the trend unfolds.

Now that you know how to anticipate a trend. Go practice it! Create a demo account or a live account from our list of forex brokers and social trading site. Practice makes perfect. There is no shortcut to success.

(C) Forex Philippines

NOVEMBER 29 Happy Trading Hours Demo Competition Winners

CONGRATULATIONS!

1. Rio - 10%
2. Mariestelle - 3%
3. Kierone Platon - 2%

You WIN:
1. 10% Discount to Midas Business Academy
2. Tony Roma's Discount Card
3. MetisEtrade Souvenir - Tshirt
4. Chance to dethrothe monthly champion Robert Escano here in our office on Dec 06

Note
*Send us your pictures (for poster purposes)
*Please prepare your team of 4 for the next monthly finals! December 06


CONGRATULATIONS!!! See you live in the office!
#Happytradinghours

Trading Recommendation Forex Nov. 29

Fundamental Analysis

Nikkei Surges to 6-year Closing High 

Today we are going to take a look at the Japanese stock market. Yes we do provide research mostly for Foreign Exchange pairs; but in this case the Japanese stock market is always a good indicator of Yen movement. Since Japan is an export-oriented country; Yen weakness gives Japanese companies higher profits thus positive equity prices. 

To read the full trading recommendation, please click this link: http://metisetrade.com/index.php/research

Technical Analysis

AUDCHF Nearing Support;Buy at a Bounce! 

Today we are going to take a look at AUDCHF. As we can see from the chart the price has been ranging for the past 6 months between 0.8745 and 0.8210. However, at the present we are closing in the bottom of that range. 

To read the full trading recommendation, please click this link: http://metisetrade.com/index.php/research

How to Trade Forex with Ichimoku: The Cloud

Howdy! Forex traders. It’s me again! Though I have been quiet lately, I know that I still have a lot of guides to create for you. I have been busy with life lately, and my positions on the market has been for the longer term (daily, weekly and monthly positions) so I decided not to post about my forex trades until I finished this another guide for ichimoku. But enough about me and lets talk more about the ichimoku indicator.

The Ichimoku cloud is the most noticeable piece of indicator in the Ichimoku chart. The idea behind the ichimoku cloud is that it is the resistance that we should be most aware of. It also tells us where the bias of the trend is and where it is heading.

How Clouds Are Formed?

Ichimoku clouds are formed because of the senkou span lines A and B. When A is above B, it is bullish. When B is above A, it is bearish.

How to Interpret the Ichimoku Cloud

Think of the ichimoku cloud as resistance lines. Only that they are lines with big bodies that vary at different points in time. The larger the body, the greater the resistance. The thinner is the cloud, the easier it is for the price action to break it because it represents a weaker resistance.

On our last post about the 3 lines of ichimoku, we said that the kijun lines is the heavy weight when it comes to the resistance. But the last resistance that the price must break is the cloud. If it wishes to reverse. In other words, the ichimoku cloud is the last resistance for a confirmation of a reversal. It it didn’t bounce back to the normal trend after hitting the cloud, then its probably going to reverse.

Things to remember about the ichimoku cloud

• When the price action is above the cloud, it is a bullish bias
• When the price action is below the cloud, it is a bearish bias
• When the price action is INSIDE the cloud, it is consolidating
• A cloud with a flat line is a strong resistance. The flat line is the resistance line.
• A cloud with a huge body is a strong resistance
• A cloud with a thinner body is a weak resistance

The Future Cloud

The ichimoku cloud or kumo has this idea of “future”. Consider this image.

Look at the last price action. The kumo cloud just below the last price action (yellow cloud) represents the latest price action. But looking a further to the right, there is a green cloud that looks somewhat incomplete. That is the future kumo or future cloud. It tries to predict what the next bias will be and will also try to give you a signal if there is a strong resistance is forming.

The future cloud is very important in giving us the first sign of reversal. I also look at the future cloud for the same reason and to be aware of strong resistance cloud forming. When the cloud changes in color, you are the first to know if the trend is weakening and you can decide on this information.

Conclusion

There’s a lot to take in, when you combine all the lines and the cloud altogether. And this is a good thing. Because the beauty of ichimoku indicator is that, because there are a lot of indicators for it, the lines and the kumo, you can craft a trading strategy that fits only for you. Without deviating from the core that makes it successful.

On the next post, I’ll teach you how you can combine all these indicators to create a trading strategy. And I will teach you the core trading strategy of this indicator that makes it successful.

(C) Forex Philippines